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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd